Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Several members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
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