Surfaces, Bowling Tools and Back-ups – The Areas Where the Ashes Will Be Won and Lost

Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|