Only 48 hours before the New York mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and block by block. The analyst, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and emerged as something of a well-known figure recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.
He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors favored the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.
What was your night?
I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 votes into the tally frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate led the initial ballots by 12 points, but came two big batches of ballots added later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.
Understand, it was possible where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for him, in which the opponent would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.
How did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?
He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.
He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, young, tenants and people struggling with costs
There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?
It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump last year backed Zohran now. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.
One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?
Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I figured we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.
You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?
Right now it appears he’s likely to surpass 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still probably 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it because then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.
The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.
He lost a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That really surprised me. Cuomo kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on Staten Island who had a high participation. I think occurred significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.
Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?
I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and residents all went for the independent. Thus there existed some opposition. But overall, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.
Prior to the election we reported on if Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?
There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises on this one, but he retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.
Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?
Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.
However I think that each urban center in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities exist.
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